STASIS PREDICTION MARKETS • STASIS ALPHA MARKETS
Markets move. Markets rest. But stasis cannot last forever. This is the immutable law upon which everything is built— and the two distinct paths by which it can be traded.
Before any system, before any indicator, before any thesis—there is a single irrefutable truth about markets:
The bitstream is the measurement instrument. At each threshold bandwidth, price movements are encoded as binary digits—1 for an upward band break, 0 for a downward break. When these bits alternate (1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0…), price is in stasis: oscillating within a defined range, unable to sustain directional momentum.
Crucially, this measurement happens simultaneously across multiple bandwidth thresholds— from the ultra-fine (0.0625%) to the macro (10%). When stasis appears at multiple scales at once, the signal compounds. The market isn't just pausing at one resolution—it's locked in equilibrium across the entire fractal structure of price.
And that equilibrium must break.
The guarantee of stasis collapse is the foundation. But there are two fundamentally different ways to trade it—two philosophies, two interfaces, two sides of the same screen.
Stasis PM is the pure probability engine. It asks one question and one question only: Is multi-threshold stasis alignment present, and at what density?
No earnings reports. No balance sheets. No narratives. No opinions. Just the cold mathematics of pattern alignment and the immutable guarantee that stasis must resolve.
This is the prediction market—the house where you don't need to understand why the spring will uncoil, only that it must. And the more thresholds that align in the same direction, the sharper your edge.
Stasis AM uses the same stasis detection as its primary filter— but then asks the deeper question: Where is stasis occurring at price floors, on equities whose fundamentals are improving?
This is alpha discovery. This is finding the stocks where the market has fallen asleep at exactly the wrong time—where price is consolidating near 52-week lows while revenue grows, margins expand, debt declines, and cash flow accelerates.
Stasis AM builds investment conviction. It gives you the coherent thesis: this company is getting better while its stock price is going nowhere. The stasis must break, and when it does, the fundamentals tell you which direction.
Stasis PM operates on a single, powerful insight: when multiple bandwidth thresholds simultaneously show stasis in the same direction, the probability of directional resolution increases dramatically. This is not a forecast—it is a structural observation with probabilistic pricing.
Where Stasis PM is the casino, Stasis AM is the research desk. It uses the same stasis detection as its primary filter, then layers rigorous fundamental analysis on top—specifically, the slopes of fundamental metrics over time.
The alpha thesis is precise: find equities where price is consolidating near its floor (stasis at low 52-week percentiles) while fundamental health is improving (positive slopes in revenue, cash flow, margins). This is the market being wrong. This is where alpha lives.
| METRIC | GOOD SLOPE | WHAT IT MEANS | SCORE IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ↑ Positive | Top-line growth accelerating | Up to +7 pts |
| Free Cash Flow | ↑ Positive | Cash generation improving | Up to +7 pts |
| ROE / ROA | ↑ Positive | Capital efficiency improving | Up to +4 pts |
| Net Profit Margin | ↑ Positive | Margin expansion | Up to +4 pts |
| P/E Ratio | ↓ Negative | Stock getting cheaper vs. earnings | Up to +5 pts |
| Debt / Equity | ↓ Negative | Deleveraging, reducing risk | Up to +4 pts |
| P/B, P/S Ratios | ↓ Negative | Valuation compression | Up to +2 pts |
| 52-Week Percentile | Lower = Better | Buying near the floor | Up to +8 pts |
| FCFY | Higher = Better | Cash yield on market cap | Up to +3 pts |
Both paths originate from the same truth. Both use the same bitstream detection engine. They diverge in philosophy, in what they ask of the trader, and in what they deliver.
| DIMENSION | 🎰 STASIS PM | 📈 STASIS AM |
|---|---|---|
| PHILOSOPHY | Pure pattern recognition & probabilistic edge | Pattern filter + fundamental conviction building |
| CORE QUESTION | "Is multi-threshold stasis aligned?" | "Is stasis at a price floor on an improving company?" |
| THEME | Dark — neon, casino-like | Light — warm, research-desk |
| DATA USED | Price action only. No fundamentals. No narratives. | Price action + quarterly financials + growth slopes |
| EDGE SOURCE | Structural certainty (stasis must break) + alignment probability | Market mispricing (improving company at depressed price) |
| TRADE STYLE | YES/NO binary contracts, fast resolution | Directional equity positions, medium/long-term |
| HOLDING PERIOD | Minutes to days (until stasis resolves) | Days to months (until market reprices) |
| SCORING | Multi-level alignment → probability → dynamic pricing | SMS + FMS = TMS (dual merit scoring) |
| RISK PROFILE | Defined (cost of contract is max loss) | Defined via stasis bands (TP/SL from band edges) |
| CONVICTION NEEDED | None — the math is the conviction | High — fundamental thesis provides conviction |
| BEST FOR | Traders who trust structure over narrative | Investors who want rational alpha with a technical entry |
| ANALOGY | Counting cards at the blackjack table | Finding undervalued real estate with a great location |
You don't have to choose. The dashboard runs both simultaneously, side by side. Stasis PM on the left for when you want to trade the structure. Stasis AM on the right for when you want to build a thesis. The bitstream feeds both. The law of novelty governs both. The guarantee holds for both.
The only question is which lens you want to look through at any given moment— the dark side of pure pattern, or the light side of fundamental conviction.